This year was not good for U.S. car sales, academics and researchers are talking about a pangent but not the worst decline in 2018. There are not so many specialists who dare to have a look beyond 2018, but Morgan Stanley did it and he doesn't like what it sees, with a technology-obsolescence inspired downturn so awful governament subsidies may be necessary to support the market.
Meanwhile forecasts for 2018's decreases with 1.5% to off 5%. BMI Research rekons sales in 2018 will go down with 1.5%after a 1.1% fall this year. The Center for Automotive Research at the University of Duisberg-Essen in Germany is peripheral less optimistic, going for a 2% fall in 2017 to 17.2 million cars and another fall of 1.5% in 2018.
As you might already know, in the latest years U.S. car inventories revived, thanks to bigger discounts, cheap consumer loans and of course financing. German investement bank Nord LB is wainting for 2017 sales to fall with 1.5% and grow next year up to 5% dive. Nord LB highlights that U.S market has been way to strong since the financial crisis of 2009 when sales were only 10.6 million.
