Over the next 2 decades expect the vehicle sales to decline. In Europe, U.S., and India based on the latest study overall annual private car sales will go down over the next 23 years to 54 million in 2040. About 67 million vehicles a year are sold currently in those regions. Another finding from the study was that more than 80 percent of the vehicles sold worldwide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fueled combustion engine.
Plug-in hybrids will account for another 14 percent of sales in 2040, IHS Markit forecast. Cars powered only by gasoline or diesel cars will make up about 62 percent of new-car sales in the study's four markets, down from 98 percent last year. Consumers will take a bigger interest in electric cars as their costs drop, driven by cheaper battery packs. Right now, battery packs costs about $200 per kilowatt hour, Vleesschauwer said. Carmakers need to get costs down to about $100 per kilowatt hour to be competitive with a gasoline-powered car, the study said, forecasting price parity in the 2030s.
While the adoption of electric vehicles is being driven in part by technology advances and government policy, "the part that's most consumer-driven is ride hailing," the on-demand service offered by such startups as Uber and China's Didi Chuxing, according to Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman. The study's authors expect 43 million barrels a day of new oil production will need to be brought into development by 2040 as demand rises and existing fields decline naturally.O