U.S. light vehicles from the 2016 model year will be the first to fall short of federal fuel economy targets in more than a decade, according to a new projection from regulators that could buttress a push by automakers to ease efficiency standards.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration forecasts that 2016 models will average 32.1 miles per gallon, below the target of 32.8. The agency forecasts another shortfall in model year 2017 of 31.8 miles per gallon compared to a projected target of 33. The U.S. fleet has exceeded industrywide fuel economy targets every year since 2004, the oldest data available on NHTSA’s website for its Corporate Average Fuel Economy program.
The two-page report, dated Feb. 14, was recently posted by NHTSA and is based on preliminary data collected from automakers that the agency cautions hasn’t been verified. This data shows that automakers have complied with the regulations thus far using less technology than once expected. That strategy is now facing headwinds.